Debate perspective from insider

Based on having been part of the debate preparation process for two presidents (Ford and Reagan), and been part of the presidential campaign management process, here are a few perspectives on presidential debates:

Debate Process
In my view, there are four phases to this process:

- Pre-debate hype—both sides trying to downplay expectations for their candidate
- Pre-debate preparation by both sides
- The debate itself
- The post-debate “spin” by both campaigns. 

Preparation Process
- Usually several days are devoted to this
- The physical scene—podiums, etc. is duplicated
- The candidates are grilled on the range of issues that are expected to come up
- In preparing for the debates, too, candidates are aware that what is often remembered from these encounters are key memorable lines, rather than the debate as a whole.  (Specific example to follow).

A Debate? The Reality
- What often occurs is both candidates quickly transition off the subject of the question and onto the key points they want to make.
- It becomes a series of familiar 30-second, set mini-speeches
- It becomes a recitation of talking points
- And it sometimes begins to sound more like an interview for a job than a debate

How To Determine A Winner?
- Did anyone make THE BIG MISTAKE?  In the case of Sarah Palin, the media will be particularly attuned to this.
- Oftentimes, what is most remembered from these debates is if, indeed, someone did make THE BIG MISTAKE.
- Thus, it’s often not substance that carries the day, but perception, and most remembered “sound bite” phrases

VP Debate
- Usually VP debates don’t have a major impact on the outcome of the election
- This time could be different
- Why? It’s a very close contest, so a mistake here by one of the VP candidates could have such impact, especially with such a short amount of time left in the campaign.  It would leave the other camp scrambling and playing defense.  You don’t win presidential campaigns playing defense.

Biden—What He Must Do?
- Key objective:  Must reassure voters about Obama
- His advantage?  He can play to his strength—foreign policy knowledge, experience, tenure in U.S. Senate, etc.
- But must walk a fine line in not patronizing Palin during the debate and also not coming on too strong or trying to lecture her

Palin—What She Must Do?
- Key objective: To make voters comfortable with Sarah Palin—that she can handle the job.
- How?  By displaying a basic grasp of key issues, including foreign policy, although I think it’s clearly the economy that’s driving this election.
- Her advantage?  Her engaging personality and freshness
- But…she must absolutely avoid making THE BIG MISTAKE

Comment
- There will be great focus on Palin, in particular, with microscopic media attention to her every word
- If she does make THE BIG MISTAKE, it will be seized upon and repeated over and over via various outlets
- Then again, she may utter a Reaganesque phrase that becomes a hallmark of this race and puts renewed wind in the sails of the McCain campaign

Debate History
- I was part of President Reagan’s team in Louisville for the second debate of the 1984 presidential campaign
- The consensus was that Mondale had bested Reagan in their first debate
- As in this 2008 campaign, the age of one of the candidate’s in that 1984 campaign was an underlying issue—Reagan’s.
- Midway through the debate Reagan uttered a now long remembered line:  “I will not make age an issue in this campaign.  I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and experience.”  Even Mondale smiled.  And when the debate was over, one of the first reporters I encountered summed it up:  “The Gipper (Reagan’s nickname) is back.”  That single line virtually turned the momentum in the campaign and Reagan went on to achieve a decisive victory.

A Last Point
- Never underestimate the use and effectiveness of humor in such an encounter, particularly self-deprecating humor.  The above cited example by Reagan shows how such can be a factor.

A Last, Last Point
From 40 years of participation in the presidential election process in various capacities, I have learned this:  24 hours can be an eternity in a close presidential election like this.  Gravity is everywhere.  The earth is constantly moving.  And it can be like a giant roller coaster ride with all the ups and downs.  Indeed, something may happen in this VP debate that alters the landscape from what it is at this moment. 

Stay tuned.