The Process and the Pick

by
Peter Roussel

Senator John McCain is underway with the process of determining his vice presidential running mate.  He has said he’d like to get it done as early as possible and before the Republican National Convention begins on September 1st.

In recent history, such has not always been the case with vice presidential selections—that is, naming one’s running mate prior to the convention.  Two such cases were Ronald Reagan’s selection of George H.W. Bush, announced at the 1980 Republican National Convention in Detroit and George H.W. Bush’s choice of Dan Quayle at the 1988 Republican National Convention in New Orleans.

Why make the announcement earlier than later?

McCain most likely has assigned a team within his campaign organization for this specific task—to vet all those individuals being considered.  This will take some time. I wouldn’t expect any announcement until they have completed a thorough due diligence process on all the possible nominees.  How long might that take?  That will depend on how many serious candidates for the position they are considering.  Note the word serious.  Often this process begins with a longer list that soon narrows down to those receiving the most serious consideration—the so-called short list.

But again, why earlier than later?  In McCain’s case he has indicated he is well aware of the enhanced importance being given to his age.  Announcing his running mate sooner than later would tend to diffuse that issue earlier than later.  It would also provide his campaign early on with a fresh boost—a surrogate who could help take on many of the things McCain currently has to do solo—speeches, travel, events, media appearances and interviews, etc.

Then again, why not wait to make such an announcement?  Certainly waiting until the convention offers one way to provide a bit of drama and sustain interest in an event which otherwise is pretty much a three-day build-up to an acceptance speech.  By waiting, it also affords the opportunity to take into account the running mate selection that will by then have been made by the Democratic presidential nominee.

These are just some of the considerations.  But there are other factors.  For instance, what about geography? Should the running mate be from a key electoral state?  Should it be a governor as a balance to his role as a senator?  Another consideration in selecting a running mate is the matter of one’s area of expertise—is this potential nominee particularly knowledgeable on economic issues?  Or is foreign policy their strength?  In McCain’s case, the former would seem to weigh more than the latter.  Balance is the operative word here.

Many names are currently being bantered about.  Will it be one of these?  Or might he choose to completely surprise us?  At the Republican convention in 1980, the prevailing wind was that Ronald Reagan might select former President Gerald Ford to run on the ticket with him.  I was there and well remember the surprise that occurred at the moment Reagan made his unplanned visit to the convention hall to instead announce his selection of Bush, not Ford.

This process is underway while the to-and-fro in the contest for the Democratic nomination continues.  Is that good news for McCain?  To some extent, but it also means that Senators Clinton and Obama will be in the forefront of news cycles and so Senator McCain will need to develop creative strategies for also remaining in the public view rather than just fading out for awhile.

So, I ask, if you were Senator McCain, who would you select?

Then again, the same question if you were Senator Clinton or Senator Obama?