Houston Blogs: Roussel Blog

VIDEO: Why do candidates hang in there?

Peter Roussel talks to Art Rascon about why candidates hang in there for so long. 

A Houston Footnote On The Obama/JFK Effect

It was interesting to note that for Senator Obama’s recent visit to Houston, the crowd reportedly waited for several hours.

This Obama effect is now also being likened to a similar draw that John F. Kennedy had on crowds, and particularly so when he was a candidate during the 1960 presidential campaign.  I remember that effect personally. 

At one point during that race, Kennedy came to Houston for a rally at the Sam Houston Coliseum.  Ironically, that site was where the 1928 Democratic National Convention was held, although in another facility that preceded the Coliseum.  That year—1928-- was the last time a presidential election occurred when there was neither a sitting President or Vice President as a candidate for nomination to the Presidency—another historical footnote for Houston.

But back to 1960.  JFK was due here for a rally at the Coliseum.  I was a teenager experiencing my first itch of interest in presidential politics, so I decided to get myself down there.  And guess what?  Just like Obama, Kennedy was late getting there; as I recall, almost by two hours.  But just like with the Obama visit to Houston, it didn’t matter.  The crowd waited.  And perhaps the delay, with the building of anticipation, made for an even more dramatic arrival. I was on the first row of the balcony, but the tremor of excitement that erupted when he entered was everywhere.  Kennedy was a candidate with a style that captivated. It’s like mystique—you can’t explain it, but you know it’s there. Obama has it, too; that presence to light up a room. 

The descriptions of Obama’s recent visit here took my thoughts back those 48 years to that Houston rally attended by one who had been touched enough by the Kennedy effect, that he decided to attend his first presidential campaign event ever.  It would not be his last. 

It seems there were a number of Houstonians who, like myself those many years ago, did the same thing here last week in behalf of another presidential candidate. Kennedy’s momentum was building at that point in the 1960 campaign.  Who says history doesn’t repeat itself?  Sometimes it even occurs in the same locale, this one being Houston.

- Peter Roussel

VIDEO: Roussel talks about the Texas effect

Peter Roussel talks to Eyewitness News producer Mike O'Neill about the Texas effect on the race to the White House.

What’s This Endorsement all about, primarily during the primary?

So former President George H.W. Bush has now endorsed Senator John McCain.

In my view, there are several tiers of purpose one should apply to this news. Which is another way of saying, look past the headlines.

I think this is particularly significant in that since leaving office, President Bush 41 has rarely been seen “out front” politically. So this announcement needs to be viewed in those terms.

Over the years having participated in a variety of campaigns, including presidential campaigns, I have come to the conclusion that endorsements of and by themselves often due not result in large chunks of votes being swayed to a candidate. This is especially true these days when many voters consider themselves independents. I have seen too many cases where endorsements flowed to a candidate and that individual still lost.

So if endorsements are not primarily about generating gobs of new voters for a candidate, what is their benefit?

In my view, what they are about are: momentum and money. Endorsements do a) provide a sense of momentum; that, in turn generates b) contributions. And there is a third aspect: they generate news coverage.

So what about the significance of this endorsement? Take the above formula and apply it.

One, timing. The hotly-contested Democratic primary has been sopping up the bulk of the recent news coverage. With the Republican race virtually decided, coverage of Senator McCain has temporarily subsided. This gets him back in the headlines just as we near the conclusion of the Texas primary, a race in which he and former Governor Huckabee appear to be running neck and neck.

Two, the message. An endorsement by a respected senior Republican Party leader such as the former president sends a message through Republican ranks. That message is that the party has now had its squabbling during the primaries, but the time has come to cease the bickering and circle wagons of support in behalf of Senator McCain. To do otherwise will extend the current fissures in the party and make the general election in the fall a very tough proposition.

Three, Texas. Such an endorsement can only serve to give McCain a momentum boost in this key state at a crucial time.

So, in the end, this endorsement may not primarily be about votes (although sure to help there, too), it augurs to be a three-bagger for McCain in other ways. Those are: timing, unity and Texas.

Peter Roussel
KTRK Political Consultant