Houston Blogs: Roussel Blog

Non State of the Union—State of the Union

What’s the prime-time speech by President Obama all about Tuesday night?

It’s not a State of the Union (he’s only been in office slightly more than a month), but, then it is….well,sort of.

This first month his agenda has been all about the economy, by necessity. In addition to the stimulus legislation, there have also been the efforts at bipartisanship. Today he’s hosting a fiscal responsibility summit at the White House and he still has two cabinet posts to fill. So there is plenty on the immediate plate.

But Tuesday would seem to be sort of a pause… let’s depart briefly from the problems of the moment and look into the future. In that way, it will be like a State of the Union speech, and those often get loaded up issue-heavy like a Christmas tree. This will be his big picture agenda—expanding education, greener energy sources, better financial industry regulation and…trying to significantly trim the $1.3 trillion deficit by the end of his first term.

On January 15, 1975, President Gerald Ford gave a State of the Union address that proclaimed: “…the State of the Union is not good.” He also said: “I have got bad news, and I don’t expect much, if any, applause.”

President Obama has stepped into a flying airplane in terms of pressing problems. It would seem that President Ford’s words for that time are certainly applicable to today. The issue is: where do we go from here?

Stay tuned.

Too soon for President Obama news conference?

The question has been asked: Isn’t it a bit soon—only three weeks into the new administration--for President Obama to be having a news conference?

---

WATCH Peter Roussel talks about political nominees on Eyewitness News

---

In my view, not at all.

Last week they got off message, which is to say that the stories that dominated the headlines primarily concerned the withdrawn nominations of Tom Daschle and Nancy Killefer. How best to get back on message, i.e., the economic stimulus legislation, than to use the forum available to a president of the United States—a televised news conference with an opening statement on the topic of his choice—not the media’s.

Further, shouldn’t President Obama be regularly communicating with, and updating, the American people in this way? FDR did much the same during tough economic times with his radio “fireside chats.” These are serious times. The regular flow of information and the maintenance of confidence go hand in hand.

Tonight’s forum also serves another purpose. By a return to the prime-time televised news conference, President Obama is not only placing himself for review before the American people, but also the reporters who will be there. Their questions will also be under public scrutiny. Thus, the viewing audience can determine on its own if reporters are being favorable toward the president as some have suggested.

Nominees, Expectations and Keeping the Message Focused

There seems to be some piling on the Obama administration right now regarding the events of the past week and their failure to pick nominees for key positions who could pass muster in terms of the confirmation process.

Yes, it seems fair to say it was a week of miscues. In an attempt to keep the message focused on the economic stimulus legislation, the message got diverted and fuzzy. The week dissolved into defense and debate about these nominees, rather than the paramount issue of the moment—the economy.

A couple of points to consider about this:

This is nothing unique—past presidents have certainly had nominees who failed to make it through this process. What is different right now is the urgency of the times in terms of the economy and need to get qualified individuals in place promptly who can be addressing our economic ills.

What is occurring here, too, is the expectations game. President Obama has come into office with high expectations for solutions. He has realistically tried to keep such high hopes in check by statements to the effect that solutions are going to take time. But there is little he can do about a groundswell of hope from the public. This is a natural occurrence with any new administration. It’s just that the stakes are higher and more urgent right now.

Yes, in all fairness, it was a week of stumbles. But let’s not be too hasty to pile on. It would seem there was some good to come from this experience. What, you ask?

Well, it certainly can be said that they are not taking shortcuts in the confirmation process—that they are making all adhere to the highest ethical standards—no exceptions.

This administration—and the nominees who have withdrawn—seem to recognize that this process is a bedrock of any administration and it is essential for it to maintain credibility lest the public begin to lose confidence.

The less good news is that this once again delays the business of getting about the country’s business. This administration has stepped into a flying airplane in terms of pressing problems—they need good, qualified people at work—now. They—and the anxiously awaiting American public--don’t need another week like the one that has just passed.

The Inaugural Scene

Having worked during and/or attended five presidential inaugurations, a few observations are herewith offered.

Three key aspects to keep in mind:

One, it is a rightful time of celebration for those that have been the victors. In my view, it also serves as a time of re-energizing for the country as a whole.

Two, inaugural speeches have been known for inspired, soaring rhetoric. President Lincoln’s second inaugural address: “…with malice toward none, with charity for all…” President Kennedy’s call to the nation: “…ask not what your country can do for you--ask what you can do for your country…”

Three, it is an occasion often remembered for unique moments: the eight inches of snow on the eve of President Kennedy’s inauguration; President and Mrs. Carter getting out of their limousine and walking down Pennsylvania Avenue during the parade; President Reagan delivering his first inaugural speech from the West front of the U.S. Capitol, the first ever from that location; then his second inaugural with the coldest weather ever for that event—seven degrees--having to be moved inside to the Capitol Rotunda. I remember. I was there.

A few thoughts as this historic week unfolds.

The Political Future: Speculation, Speculation, Speculation

President-elect Obama hasn’t even been sworn in yet and there’s already some interesting speculation on the political landscape….such as…

…Caroline Kennedy as a possible for Hilary Clinton’s New York Senate seat…and…Jeb Bush running in 2010 for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez’s Florida Senate seat.

And what about the future face of the Republican Party? Who will emerge?

Governor Bobby Jindal?
Governor Tim Pawlenty?
Governor Mitch Daniels?
Governor Charlie Crist?
Senator John Cornyn?
Congressman Eric Cantor?

And what about Gov. Sarah Palin?

Between now and 2010, some of the above will sort out. But it’s always good to remember that 24 hours can be an eternity in the political arena.

Stay tuned.

President-elect Obama’s recent Cabinet appointment

Several points of note with regard to President-elect Obama’s recent Cabinet appointments:

One, he is not wasting any time.  In a sense, they are stepping into a flying airplane. 

In some cases, the new appointees will be ready to go to work on Day One.  Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense has already previously been confirmed by the senate.  Gen. James Jones as the new White House national security adviser and Rahm Emanuel as White House Chief of Staff are assuming positions that do not require senate confirmation.

Also, with experienced people like Senator Clinton, Gates and Jones focusing on the foreign policy/defense issues, this should clear more time for President-elect Obama to devote to the number one priority—the economy.

Second, he is surrounding himself with experienced D.C. people.  There won’t be much need for on-the-job training.

With regard to Senator Clinton’s nomination as Secretary of State:
--It shores up any lingering political divisions
--She should be formidable; she knows the turf
--She already knows many leaders around the world

Three, President-elect Obama has indicated he will welcome vigorous debate from his advisers in the White House.  To which he has reminded that ultimately he will be the one setting policy and providing the vision that this team carries out. 

In the end, they all serve at the pleasure of the President.

It will be interesting to observe as it all unfolds.

Debate perspective from insider

Based on having been part of the debate preparation process for two presidents (Ford and Reagan), and been part of the presidential campaign management process, here are a few perspectives on presidential debates:

Debate Process
In my view, there are four phases to this process:

- Pre-debate hype—both sides trying to downplay expectations for their candidate
- Pre-debate preparation by both sides
- The debate itself
- The post-debate “spin” by both campaigns. 

Preparation Process
- Usually several days are devoted to this
- The physical scene—podiums, etc. is duplicated
- The candidates are grilled on the range of issues that are expected to come up
- In preparing for the debates, too, candidates are aware that what is often remembered from these encounters are key memorable lines, rather than the debate as a whole.  (Specific example to follow).

A Debate? The Reality
- What often occurs is both candidates quickly transition off the subject of the question and onto the key points they want to make.
- It becomes a series of familiar 30-second, set mini-speeches
- It becomes a recitation of talking points
- And it sometimes begins to sound more like an interview for a job than a debate

How To Determine A Winner?
- Did anyone make THE BIG MISTAKE?  In the case of Sarah Palin, the media will be particularly attuned to this.
- Oftentimes, what is most remembered from these debates is if, indeed, someone did make THE BIG MISTAKE.
- Thus, it’s often not substance that carries the day, but perception, and most remembered “sound bite” phrases

VP Debate
- Usually VP debates don’t have a major impact on the outcome of the election
- This time could be different
- Why? It’s a very close contest, so a mistake here by one of the VP candidates could have such impact, especially with such a short amount of time left in the campaign.  It would leave the other camp scrambling and playing defense.  You don’t win presidential campaigns playing defense.

Biden—What He Must Do?
- Key objective:  Must reassure voters about Obama
- His advantage?  He can play to his strength—foreign policy knowledge, experience, tenure in U.S. Senate, etc.
- But must walk a fine line in not patronizing Palin during the debate and also not coming on too strong or trying to lecture her

Palin—What She Must Do?
- Key objective: To make voters comfortable with Sarah Palin—that she can handle the job.
- How?  By displaying a basic grasp of key issues, including foreign policy, although I think it’s clearly the economy that’s driving this election.
- Her advantage?  Her engaging personality and freshness
- But…she must absolutely avoid making THE BIG MISTAKE

Comment
- There will be great focus on Palin, in particular, with microscopic media attention to her every word
- If she does make THE BIG MISTAKE, it will be seized upon and repeated over and over via various outlets
- Then again, she may utter a Reaganesque phrase that becomes a hallmark of this race and puts renewed wind in the sails of the McCain campaign

Debate History
- I was part of President Reagan’s team in Louisville for the second debate of the 1984 presidential campaign
- The consensus was that Mondale had bested Reagan in their first debate
- As in this 2008 campaign, the age of one of the candidate’s in that 1984 campaign was an underlying issue—Reagan’s.
- Midway through the debate Reagan uttered a now long remembered line:  “I will not make age an issue in this campaign.  I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and experience.”  Even Mondale smiled.  And when the debate was over, one of the first reporters I encountered summed it up:  “The Gipper (Reagan’s nickname) is back.”  That single line virtually turned the momentum in the campaign and Reagan went on to achieve a decisive victory.

A Last Point
- Never underestimate the use and effectiveness of humor in such an encounter, particularly self-deprecating humor.  The above cited example by Reagan shows how such can be a factor.

A Last, Last Point
From 40 years of participation in the presidential election process in various capacities, I have learned this:  24 hours can be an eternity in a close presidential election like this.  Gravity is everywhere.  The earth is constantly moving.  And it can be like a giant roller coaster ride with all the ups and downs.  Indeed, something may happen in this VP debate that alters the landscape from what it is at this moment. 

Stay tuned.

The Vice President guess-a-thon

OK, we’re in the homestretch for the vice presidential selections.

Various names have been floated on both sides.

A range of reasons can be offered on which to base this decision.

Yes, there are political, geographic, experience and ideological factors, but in the end, three criteria seem paramount: 

One, are the two individuals compatible—do they get along?

Two, can this person be counted on not to make mistakes that could be a source of ongoing problems—verbal gaffes.—during the campaign?

Three, could this individual be counted on to effectively assume the presidency should circumstance make that necessary?

With those considerations, I’ll narrow it down to one prediction on each side and join the guess-a-thon thusly:

Democrat:  Senator Joe Biden
Republican:  Former Governor Mitt Romney

The V.P. Guessing Game

It seems like there's often a "surprise" pick by presidential nominees.  But as of July 1, 2008, I'll go with:

Democrat:
Governor Bill Richardson
Senator Jim Webb
Former Senator Sam Nunn

Republican:
Former Governor Mitt Romney
Former Congressman Rob Portman
Governor Tim Pawlenty

What happens next?

Peter Roussel discusses what's next after primary season ends.

WATCH THE VIDEO