Roussel Blog

The V.P. Guessing Game

It seems like there's often a "surprise" pick by presidential nominees.  But as of July 1, 2008, I'll go with:

Democrat:
Governor Bill Richardson
Senator Jim Webb
Former Senator Sam Nunn

Republican:
Former Governor Mitt Romney
Former Congressman Rob Portman
Governor Tim Pawlenty

What happens next?

Peter Roussel discusses what's next after primary season ends.

WATCH THE VIDEO

VIDEO: Should Hillary get out and more

Peter Roussel hit the abc13 airwaves to talk about the candidates Sunday morning.

WATCH HIS APPEARANCE HERE

VIDEO: Roussel on the set

Peter Roussel was on the news talking about last night's primaries.  Is Hillary finished?

WATCH HERE

A perspective on polls

There are many polls being bandied about right now with varying numbers.

While many are related to the current Clinton-Obama Democratic nomination contest, some are also geared to the match-up of both those candidates versus John McCain.

It has been the experience of yours truly that a poll taken in May 2008 is a snapshot of voter sentiment at that time, not November 2008.

And that leads to a second point.  Sometimes in a presidential campaign 24 hours can be an eternity; that is to say that gravity is everywhere, the earth is constantly moving and some unforeseen event, statement, occurrence, etc. can change those polls overnight.

Bottom line:  There is still a long way to go.

The Process and the Pick

by
Peter Roussel

Senator John McCain is underway with the process of determining his vice presidential running mate.  He has said he’d like to get it done as early as possible and before the Republican National Convention begins on September 1st.

In recent history, such has not always been the case with vice presidential selections—that is, naming one’s running mate prior to the convention.  Two such cases were Ronald Reagan’s selection of George H.W. Bush, announced at the 1980 Republican National Convention in Detroit and George H.W. Bush’s choice of Dan Quayle at the 1988 Republican National Convention in New Orleans.

Why make the announcement earlier than later?

McCain most likely has assigned a team within his campaign organization for this specific task—to vet all those individuals being considered.  This will take some time. I wouldn’t expect any announcement until they have completed a thorough due diligence process on all the possible nominees.  How long might that take?  That will depend on how many serious candidates for the position they are considering.  Note the word serious.  Often this process begins with a longer list that soon narrows down to those receiving the most serious consideration—the so-called short list.

But again, why earlier than later?  In McCain’s case he has indicated he is well aware of the enhanced importance being given to his age.  Announcing his running mate sooner than later would tend to diffuse that issue earlier than later.  It would also provide his campaign early on with a fresh boost—a surrogate who could help take on many of the things McCain currently has to do solo—speeches, travel, events, media appearances and interviews, etc.

Then again, why not wait to make such an announcement?  Certainly waiting until the convention offers one way to provide a bit of drama and sustain interest in an event which otherwise is pretty much a three-day build-up to an acceptance speech.  By waiting, it also affords the opportunity to take into account the running mate selection that will by then have been made by the Democratic presidential nominee.

These are just some of the considerations.  But there are other factors.  For instance, what about geography? Should the running mate be from a key electoral state?  Should it be a governor as a balance to his role as a senator?  Another consideration in selecting a running mate is the matter of one’s area of expertise—is this potential nominee particularly knowledgeable on economic issues?  Or is foreign policy their strength?  In McCain’s case, the former would seem to weigh more than the latter.  Balance is the operative word here.

Many names are currently being bantered about.  Will it be one of these?  Or might he choose to completely surprise us?  At the Republican convention in 1980, the prevailing wind was that Ronald Reagan might select former President Gerald Ford to run on the ticket with him.  I was there and well remember the surprise that occurred at the moment Reagan made his unplanned visit to the convention hall to instead announce his selection of Bush, not Ford.

This process is underway while the to-and-fro in the contest for the Democratic nomination continues.  Is that good news for McCain?  To some extent, but it also means that Senators Clinton and Obama will be in the forefront of news cycles and so Senator McCain will need to develop creative strategies for also remaining in the public view rather than just fading out for awhile.

So, I ask, if you were Senator McCain, who would you select?

Then again, the same question if you were Senator Clinton or Senator Obama?

VIDEO: Roussel's Texas primary wrap up

Peter Roussel wraps up the Texas primaries on Eyewitness News This Morning.

VIDEO: Can you change your vote?

You wrote in with your questions, now Peter Roussel gives the answer.

If I am a typical Republican voter but I decided to vote today for a Democrat, but the person I voted for did not win the nomination and during the presidential election I decide to go back to Republican party am I able to do that?

Angela,
Houston

VIDEO: Are polls accurate?

You wrote in with your questions, now Peter Roussel gives the answer.

I read that the last polls were so inaccurate days before the NJ, CA, & AZ primaries due to the Hispanic vote. In polls, Hillary Clinton was up by one point, but won by more. Am I just being overly optimistic for Clinton or is that the same thing that we could see in Texas?

Fran
North Myrtle Beach, SC

Lest We Overlook The Basics

Amidst all the primary election hubbub, the basics of the voting process often get little notice.  This was brought home to me when doing a segment for Channel 13 and a discussion with Elissa Rivas regarding that process.

Question:  There are those who have expressed interest in voting for a presidential candidate in one primary, but voting for candidates for other positions in the other primary.  Can this be done?

Answer:  No.  When you go to vote, you will choose to vote in one of the party’s primaries and thus will be voting only for that party’s candidates. 

They’ll Be Flocking to the Polls

There has been much speculation about what has driven the extremely high turn out of voters during early voting in Texas and why there are predictions of a record turn out on Tuesday.

Yes, the hotly contested Democratic presidential primary contest has energized voters—traditional Democrats, independents (many of whom might ordinarily vote in the Republican primary) and first time voters.  And it has energized traditional Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary.

In addition, I think there are a couple of other factors.  For the first time since 1928 there is not a sitting president or vice president of either major party seeking the nomination.  This historical footnote to this election has been oft mentioned and thus I do think it is serving to inspire participation in the process. 

Lastly, I think Florida and the 2000 presidential election are still fresh in mind.  The closeness of that election reaffirmed that an individual’s vote does count.  That just may be in the back of many minds as voters flock to the polls in Texas and elsewhere.

- Peter Roussel